Who could have predicted Stephenie Meyers's phenomenal success with the Twilight series?  Who could have known that Tom Sawyer would become a classic beloved by readers for decades?  Did Tolkien know, when he spent thirty years or so writing The Lord of the Ring, that the series would become the very definition of high fantasy?  I really don't think so.  But still, on a listserve I follow, writers are asking each other what's selling, so they can decide what projects to propose. 

The trouble with writing to the market is that the market is a moving target.  Trying to guess in advance what readers will want is an exercise in frustration.  Do they want more vampires?  (I hope so.)  Do they want historical fiction?  (I hope that, too.)  Do they want literary novels, commercial novels, erotic novels?   Single points of view, multiple points of view?  Likable protagonists, anti-heroes?  Books which feature all of these things have been successful.  Book which feature these things have failed. 

My first, wise editor said once that everyone wants to buy the next bestseller, but no one has a clue what it is.  That includes editors, agents, booksellers, publishers--and writers.  So what to do?

I learned this lesson the hard way in my first career as a singer.  The mezzo-sopranos who were popular at the time I was studying all had big, dark voices.  I had a teacher--a good teacher, who meant well--who did her best to mold me into one of those.  The problem was, of course, my voice wasn't big and dark, but lighter and brighter.  I learned, after years of struggle, to sing with my own voice.  Only then did I have any real success.

I'm convinced it's the same with writing (or painting, or cooking, or any of the creative arts).  I believe in writing what excites me, what makes me want to hurry to the computer every day and put words on the screen.  In the end, I want to write books that I can be proud of, books that matter, that people will remember.  There are other writers who want to write lots and lots of books, and hope that will make them lots and lots of money.  I wish them well.  And if they figure out the magic answer, I hope they share it with all of us.